DGB Group publishes 2025 voluntary carbon market outlook

DGB Group N.V. (“DGB” or “the Group”) (Euronext: DGB: NL000916951), a leading developer of carbon projects and ecosystem restoration initiatives, has published its 2025 voluntary carbon market outlook. This outlook provides insights into the rapid evolution of the voluntary carbon market, offering a detailed exploration of emerging trends, forecasted price shifts, and areas of opportunity for businesses and investors.

Key trends

Growing demand for high-quality carbon units:

• Corporations are increasingly prioritising carbon units (carbon credits) with robust verification and additionality, such as carbon removal technologies and nature-based solutions, as part of their net-zero strategies.

• Stricter verification standards are expected to phase out low-quality credits, fostering a transition towards transparent, high-quality options.

• Nature-based solutions, including afforestation and reforestation projects, are projected to dominate due to their scalability, cost-effectiveness, and alignment with ESG reporting requirements, despite challenges such as permanence.

Integration of voluntary carbon markets into regulatory frameworks:

• National compliance measures, including Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAM), are increasingly incorporating voluntary carbon markets, blurring the lines between voluntary and compliance systems.

• Article 6 of the Paris Agreement is advancing global efforts to harmonise voluntary and compliance markets, introducing greater scrutiny over credit quality.

Corporate accountability and sustainability reporting:

• The EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) is driving transparency in environmental disclosures, significantly boosting demand for verified carbon units.

• More businesses are conducting comprehensive carbon footprint analyses to mitigate residual emissions, further increasing reliance on carbon units as an offsetting mechanism.

• Despite concerns over greenwashing, large corporations are projected to maintain or grow their offsetting commitments as part of their net-zero ambitions.

CORSIA and aviation sector offsetting:

• The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) is catalysing demand for carbon units within the aviation industry, as airlines seek compliance with offsetting regulations.

Price predictions

Short-term predictions (2025):

1. Differentiation based on credit quality:

   • High-quality carbon units, including verified nature-based solutions and advanced carbon removal technologies, are expected to command premiums of $30–$50 per tonne or higher. This is driven by heightened corporate demand and the introduction of stricter regulatory standards.

   • Lower-quality credits, including those associated with avoidance projects that struggle to demonstrate additionality, may experience declining prices or lose market appeal altogether, stabilising at $3–$10 per tonne.

2. Volatility in spot prices:

   • Spot prices for carbon units are forecasted to remain volatile in 2025, fluctuating between $5–$40 per tonne. These fluctuations will likely result from uneven regulatory frameworks, shifts in corporate demand, and supply-side constraints that vary across regions and project types.

3. Oversupply challenges:

   • A surplus of legacy or low-quality credits, particularly from sectors such as forestry and REDD+ projects that fail to meet updated verification standards, could exert downward pressure on prices in certain market segments.

4. Premiums for co-benefits:

   • Carbon units offering additional benefits, such as biodiversity conservation, community development, or water security, are expected to command premiums of 20–50% above standard credit prices, reflecting their enhanced value to buyers.

Long-term predictions (beyond 2025):

1. Rising global average prices:

   • The global average price of voluntary carbon credits is expected to rise significantly as demand continues to grow and stricter quality standards constrain supply. By 2030, high-quality credits could exceed $100 per tonne, while average credit prices are projected to stabilise within the $30–$50 per tonne range.

2. Integration with compliance markets:

   • As voluntary markets increasingly intersect with compliance systems through frameworks such as Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, the pricing of voluntary credits may align more closely with compliance market benchmarks like the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), currently priced at approximately $90 per tonne.

3. Growing premiums for carbon removals:

   • Credits from nature-based carbon removal solutions, including reforestation, agroforestry, and afforestation, are set to dominate pricing trends. By 2030, these credits could surpass $200 per tonne, reflecting rising demand and advancements in carbon removal technologies.

4. Enhanced market liquidity and standardisation:

   • The recognition of carbon units as financial instruments will drive market liquidity, with standardised benchmarks and futures contracts fostering greater pricing predictability.

5. Regional price convergence:

   • Efforts to harmonise global carbon markets are expected to reduce regional price disparities. However, developing nations with abundant land and lower operational costs may continue to offer more affordable nature-based credits.

6. Scarcity of high-quality supply:

   • The imbalance between surging demand and a limited supply of high-integrity credits may lead to exponential price increases, particularly for removal-based projects, creating potential barriers for late market entrants.

For more information about the carbon market and how DGB is contributing to a sustainable future, visit our newsroom and blog page or subscribe to our newsletter.

Contact details

DGB GROUP NV
press@green.earth
+31320788118

About DGB Group

DGB is a project developer of high-quality, large-scale carbon and biodiversity projects accredited by third parties. The Group is focused on nature conservation and helping biodiversity flourish by assisting governments and corporations in achieving net zero. Global megatrends drive the demand for carbon units and underpin growth opportunities. DGB GROUP NV is a public company traded on the main Dutch stock exchange Euronext Amsterdam under the ticker symbol AEX:DGB and ISIN-code NL0009169515. www.green.earth

Disclaimer

This press release does not contain an (invitation to make an) offer to buy or sell or otherwise acquire or subscribe to shares in DGB and is not an advice or recommendation to take or refrain from taking any action. This press release contains statements that could be construed as forward-looking statements, including about the financial position of DGB, the results it achieved and the business(es) it runs. Forward-looking statements are all statements that do not relate to historical facts. These statements are based on information currently available and forecasts and estimates made by DGB’s management. Although DGB believes that these statements are based on reasonable assumptions, it cannot guarantee that the ultimate results will not differ materially from those statements that could be construed as forward-looking statements. Factors that may lead to or contribute to differences in current expectations include, but are not limited to: developments in legislation, technology, tax, regulation, stock market price fluctuations, legal proceedings, regulatory investigations, competitive relationships and general economic conditions. These and other factors, risks and uncertainties that may affect any forward-looking statement or the actual results of DGB are discussed in the annual report. The forward-looking statements in this document speak only as of the date of this document. Subject to any legal obligation, DGB assumes no obligation or responsibility to update the forward-looking statements contained in this document, whether related to new information, future events or otherwise. The provision of DGB’s services and products is subject to its General Terms and Conditions.