Researchers behind the UN-commissioned Modeling Fuelwood Saving Scenarios (MoFuSS) tool have updated their methods to improve the precision of firewood usage data in Africa. This enhancement seeks to address criticisms of over-crediting in the voluntary carbon market (VCM), a problem linked to outdated or inflated estimates of unsustainable wood harvesting.
African woman preparing a meal using a clean cookstove. Ai generated picture.
MoFuSS, led by academics Adrian Gilhardi from the National Autonomous University of Mexico and Rob Bailis, utilises advanced Monte Carlo statistical techniques to refine predictions. These methods simulate multiple scenarios to minimise uncertainties and smooth out variations caused by localised factors. The tool's improved granularity is particularly vital in regions where firewood demand is only one of several drivers of deforestation.
The new model recalibrates the fraction of non-renewable biomass (fNRB), a key metric in carbon credit calculations. As of June, MoFuSS estimates the global average fNRB at 32% ± 18%, a significant departure from the higher figures previously used by project developers. These updates aim to align carbon credit calculations more closely with real-world conditions, reducing the risk of over-crediting.
The clean cookstoves sector, which relies on accurate data to justify emissions reductions, is currently exploring the Comprehensive Lowered Emissions Assessment and Reporting (Clear) methodology. Clear is expected to adopt the updated default values provided by MoFuSS, although the methodology is still awaiting final approval.
While the refinements have been praised, some critics remain sceptical, questioning the assumptions underlying the model and advocating for alternative methods. As the sector moves toward consensus, the updated MoFuSS model may help restore trust in the carbon market's approach to firewood sustainability.
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